Almost immediately after completing my first read of the book, I wanted a better understanding of the methodology employed, but there’s not much there. Friedman argues that prediction is more art than science, but there’s obviously some kind of research framework employed. Since I’m not in the field, I’m not acquainted with it. Some education beyond my existing sources is in order.
As a generalist, I’m an interested observer – outside the discussion and eager to shove myself into it anyway. The following are a few additional sources that I’ve found useful when trying to make sense of this subject.
The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought
A talk by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Inspired by his book, The Black Swan)
Taleb’s Seminar at The Long Now
A “black swan,” is an event which is 1) Hard to predict; 2) Highly consequential; 3) Wrongly retro-predicted. We pretend we know why the big event happened, and so entrench our inability to deal with the next world-changing improbable event. Examples: Viagra, 9/11, Harry Potter, First World War, Beatles, the PC, Google, and the rise of any successful religion. History is dominated by sudden, lasting changes wrought by deeply unexpected events. (excerpt from Stewart Brand’s notes)
The Art of the Long View
A book by Peter Schwartz
Author and president of an international consulting firm, Peter Schwartz presents lessons in thinking for the future. Schwartz offers scenarios from the oil industry that can be applied to all aspects of life. His first-hand accounts, originally developed for Royal Dutch/Shell, are invaluable tools for creative thinking in one’s personal life and in business. Schwartz’s methods will enable anyone to think more creatively. (from the Audiofile description)
Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions
A website that’s part of The Long Now organization
The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes. (from the site itself)
My Humble Prediction
Nassim Taleb would say that in order to get better at predictions, I need to make some of my own. In an earlier post, I posited what the likely results of the current Iranian showdown might be. The jury’s still out on that. It’s safe to conclude that I’ll be wrong, but hopefully an interesting kind of wrong.
So in the spirit of improving my predictive powers, I’d like to make this prediction:
The conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq will come to be known as failed wars in spite of the fact that it will succeed in supporting the nation’s geopolitical directives. As spoiler-conflicts, they will prohibit any power from becoming regionally dominant in the near term. This fact will be lost on most Americans. It will, however, precede the “good war” that will follow, whomever that happens to be against. It’s perceived goodness will be a function of the nation’s generational configuration and not due to any innate goodness or particular competitor.
Once I think about making predictions, my mind immediately drifts to Paul Erhlich, who’s made a career out of making horribly wrong predictions. According to him, we should all be awash in sudden typhoons with mass starvation striking every nation. This kind of prescience isn’t exactly what I’m shooting for.
You’d think that after decades of book-writing, he’d be a bit less wrong than he’s turned out to be, but no such luck. I’m hesitant to throw stones, however, because I don’t know how I would fare on this front. When it comes down to the how, I wonder about those technologies mentioned in the blurb from Taleb’s talk. Nobody saw them coming, but they certainly changed the world.
