More About StratFor Forecasts

By
Matt Warren
– January 30, 2010Posted in: Education, Geopolitics, Predictions
Big pictures, small pictures, cycles, discontinuities, and events that blast onto the scene; there's a lot to absorb.

Explainers

Recently, in my post entitled A Closer Look at StratFor’s Geopolitics, I lamented the lack of detailed information about their predictive methodology. Though Friedman’s recent book didn’t go into terribly much detail, I did manage to discover the following video which offers a little better of a handle.

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Big picture, small picture, cycles, discontinuities, events that blast onto the scene; there’s a lot to absorb, but I still feel as though I’m flying blind. Even though I’ve been reading StratFor’s publications since 2001, I still feel like the only way I make sense of the materials is intuitively.

Intuition is a great starting point, but I’m reminded of some old quote about how intuition, when untested and unsupported, is an insufficient guarantee of truth. I suppose that some of the critical methods I’m exposed to at my job have rubbed off on me. But it’s not enough to feel that something is right. I want to acquire evidence of it.

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About Matt Warren

I'm a husband, father, gamer, and restless quasi-intellectual. My interests include reading, gaming, and juggling knives while blindfolded and barrel-running down a steep hill.