Hello Sports Fans
I liken my interest in geopolitics to watching sports. Sadly, my stand-in for sports involves the likely outcome of a bunch of dead humans, which is a bit of a downer. This also explains why I consider the outrage about steroid use in sports so quaint. The subjects may be different, but the root of the interest holds some commonalities.
You and I have as much to do with bare-knuckled geopolitical wrangling as the average Seahawks fan does with an opening play. But what the hell, let’s armchair quarterback about Iran.
Fast Forward to Now
There are a lot of factors in play in the ongoing Iranian dispute. For the record, here’s what I said back in November. I made a few predictions as to the likely outcomes with the usual caveats. What seemed absolutely essential to me was that Obama had to take relatively quick action. That expectation is dashed. Our domestic preoccupation – along with a healthy dose of looking busy about Iran – bought more time than I thought.
This post is inspired by what I read in StratFor’s “The Iranian Saga Continues“ this past Friday. Here’s a look at their view of the basic essentials.
Israel is a state so small that it could not likely survive a nuclear strike. It feels that Iran’s civilian nuclear power program is simply a mask for a more nefarious weapons project and wants it stopped by severe sanctions if possible, and military force if necessary. As Israel lacks the muscle to achieve this itself, it is attempting to pressure the Americans to handle the issue. Israel is reasonably confident it can so pressure Washington, simply because while Israel lacks the punch to certifiably end the Iranian program, it most certainly has the ability to start a war. Since Iran’s best means of retaliating would be to interrupt oil shipments in the Persian Gulf, the United States would have no choice but to get involved, regardless of its independent desires.
I don’t think Americans appreciate the benefits our geography affords us. When you read “Israel is a state so small that it could not likely survive a nuclear strike” let me put that into terms that is a bit more direct.
Lacks Strategic Depth
That section heading doesn’t begin to cover it. The modern state of Israel can withstand one, perhaps two nuclear strikes before it ceases to exist as a political entity. From the perspective of Israeli policymakers, Iran can’t be allowed to build a bomb. Even if I have strong disagreements about Israeli foreign policy, I can’t blame them for feeling jittery.
Meanwhile, we now see puzzling Brazilian overtures toward Iran and odd silence out of the usual actors: China and Russia. Without Russia, sanctions flat out won’t work. China is resistant but is likely to eventually cave given our deep commercial connections. Recently, Japan offered to provide uranium, another angle toward satisfying both the American and Iranian requirements.
Back to Reality
There isn’t a global conspiracy and Israel doesn’t run U.S. foreign policy. Nations are simply looking out for their interests, albeit behind closed doors and firmly outside the arena of public will. There is no imminent threat to America, but there is a substantial threat to the U.S.-run trade-system. We have to care about this and it’s not because of global conspiracy or nationalist greed.
The Strait of Hormuz is much too important for global trade. Put the political rhetoric aside and you’ll find that Obama is doing exactly what McCain would be doing in the broadest of strokes.
The contours would be different, the tone would have altered, and the timetable would change, but both those men would be dealing with very similar situations. Both would likely feel pressured into their decisions while the public thinks they’ve determined the outcome. That is an aside, but something that always dangles within view of my explorations.
Sticking with my Answer
Looking back at that post, I’d like to further refine my outlandish prediction.
I still think that a limited war will be the outcome. Troops already in Iraq will have their posture shifted toward Iran, but will remain outside the nation except for special forces. National statements will have a familiar ring; some will condemn the action and others will simply hope for a speedy resolution. Russia will be quiet. They are standing in our way now, but once hostilities begin, they’ll figure they have even more time to Russify their near abroad.
More from the StratFor take:
Ultimately the Russians are willing to toss the Iranians aside, but only if the price is right. Thursday they gave a pretty clear idea of just what that price is: full American acquiescence to their desired sphere of influence.
Hopefully, both nations would then realize that the game of chicken has gone on too long, and reach a very surprising (to the public, anyway) resolution. The hope will be that both nations retain as much face as possible to satisfy the nationally loyalist sentiment.
Obligatory Qualifier
I do not wish for icky outcomes. I hope for some clever sanctions regimen that we can arm twist Russia into accepting. I think recognizing a Russian sphere of influence isn’t out of the question, no matter how hilariously “outraged” the state department appears at the very idea of these strange, mysterious “spheres of influence.”
Even better, perhaps there’s some way to provide Iran with the recognition they seek without providing an increase to their sphere of influence. The U.S. plan already appears as a shift toward bolstering Turkey while standing in the way of Iran. That alone could become an effective bulwark against Iranian ambitions. For now, at least.
In the end, I don’t know what I’ll be doing tomorrow even though I have a general prediction that will usually be right. With each additional day, the risk of my being wrong increases at a pretty quick pace. The only question now is how I will be wrong. Whether I can learn from it is no less a question.
